The Silver Ring Thing and the heresy of statistics
Dialogs June 23rd, 2007Read an article in todays news concerning a court case that is about to take place in the UK. A girl of 16 who has pledged her viriginity till marriage had been taken into isolation for teaching at school as the ring contravened strict jewellery and uniform rules. At the same school it would be tolerated for a Muslim to wear a headscarf and for a Sikh to wear their ceremonial bracelet.
I have mixed feelings on this case, doubtless AC-1 may propose that a complete secularisation of school rules would prevent the alleged disparity that is occuring here, and the alleged anti-christian legislation. I am not so sure I would agree with that, but it does have its valid points. I am concerned that the case is an unfair test case, the action is being pursued by the girls parents, who happen to be involved in the UK organisation of the chastity movement. But the girl has declared that she is freely consenting to participating in legal action, so despite personal concerns one must take her word on that.
The headmaster has stated (correctly) that the chastity ring, just like a neclace crucifix is a non-obligatory accessory in Christianity. By not wearing it, no sin or breech of rules is occuring, unlike in Islam or Hinduism where certain accessories are prescribed. This is however slightly besides the point, for the Silver Ring Thing has a specific resonance for those teenagers who take the pledge of chastity. By wearing it there is a visible symbol of that pledge to the wearer and to others. Some criticism emerges in that those who break their pledge and remove their rings are perhaps vulnerable to peer criticism, but this argument is only relevent in those situations where it is peer popular (i.e. America). In the UK the Silver Ring Thing is a minority counter cultural group. Therefore I am inclined to say to the headmaster, use your common sense and let them get on with it.
The Silver Ring Thing, and True Love Waits are US protestant Christian chastity movements, specifically aimed at teenagers, but specifically founded as a counter-cultural method of decreasing teenage pregnancy and STD’s. The pledge that is taken is that the bearer will abstain from sexual intercourse until they are married. In the US federal funding was removed a couple of years ago over fears that it was being used to spread the Christian message.
There has of course obviously been some criticism from all manners of directions some of which are secular interference, others are mocking the counter-cultural nature of the movement, and some is valid criticism.
As I said I have mixed views, the notion that abstinence can reduce teen prenancies and STD rates of infection is a valid one. No sex, no babies, no STD’s. It really is that simple. But some opponents point out that such an emphasis on abstinence leaves the pledger un-educated when it comes to sexual health, meaning that if they were to break their pledge they would most likely engage in higher risk activity such as unprotected sex. This is a possible criticism, but one that is probably only valid in the US, sex-education in the UK is near obligatory and it is hard to accept the argument as being valid here. The majority of teenage pregnancies in this country occur due to high-risk activity, irrespective of their religious adherence, in fact most of them probably are religiously unaffiliated anyway.
There are some valid observations made about this programme, for example marriages occur at a younger age, and pregnancy within the early years of marriage are high.
There was one part of the article (and the research) into this phenomenon that does bother me. At the end of the article it was stated that some scientists are critical of the effects of the chastity movement. So I decided to investigate the research myself and see what was being said.
Scientists declared that pledges of abstinece barely cut teen pregnancies and STD infection rates. I thought, thats interesting how so? Well the normal propaganda was reeled out that the pledgers are uneducated and if and when they fail they are just as likely and in some cases possibly more likely to contract an STD or to fall pregnant.
Of course as I read the material more it became obvious that most of it was bunkum and second rate christian-bashing bunkum at that. The figures indicated the possibility that those who broke their pledge were more likely to engage in high risk sexual activity (unprotected, oral sex, anal sex) than those who took no such pledge. Thus rendering them at greater risk.
Of course the scientists had to acknowledge that those who took the pledge were more likely to get married early and had fewer sexual partners (even if they broke the pre-marital sex pledge). And (though they wouldnt openly admit it) there was a begrudging admission that yes indeed no sex equals no babies and no infection transmission.
So whats the problem… well according to Prof Bearman it is: “From a public health point of view, an abstinence movement that encourages no vaginal sex may inadvertently encourage other forms of alternative sex that are at higher risk of STDs.”
So lets look at the figures.
7% of non-pledgers contracted STD’s, compared to 6.4% of the inconsistent pledgers (who broke the pledge on numerous occasions and engaged in high-risk activities), compared to 4.6% of consistent pledgers (who only lapsed very rarely).
What Bearmans research didnt show was that teen-pregnancies had fallen. So some criticism fell his way that he was amplifying the negative results over the positive. What is interesting is that he considers the statistical difference to be minute, but this is over tens of thousands of surveyed participants so the gap is larger. If the figures had shown the opposite, namely that infection rates were higher amongst abstainers I would listen more attentively.
There are two problems with the research here, and two examples of the heresy of presenting statistics as though they actually mean anything. Firstly the researcher kindly differentiates between consistent and inconsistent pledgers. The latter are those who regularly break their pledge and engage in sexual activity. What isn’t shown is the frequency of those lapses. The greater the number of lapses the greater the occurence of rates of infection. Surely then he should re-categorise these incosistent pledgers as simply former pledgers, who broke their pledge and engaged in behaviour that wasnt all that different from non-pledgers. Secondly he is absolutely correct that any chastity programme that focuses on abstinence from vaginal sex is ignoring the dangers that are incurred through other high-risk sexual acts. But, most if not all of these chastity movements are quite clear that abstinence means abstaining from all sexual acts. If they do not then they are falling into the semantic trap characterised by President Clintons defence in the Monica Lewinski scandal, diffeentiating between sex and a sexual act.
OK rant over. It will be interesting to see how this proceeds. If the case highlights the inconsistency in religious tolerance edicts then fine. Lets hope it doesn’t become a vehicle for fundamentalism. Chastity and abstinence are fine, but they must be personal consenting choices.

June 24th, 2007 at 12:00 pm
“AC-1 may propose that a complete secularisation of school rules would prevent the alleged disparity that is occuring here” woah you took the words out of my mouth
Hopefully, I would not have raised this point as it is not directly relevant to this case. (But it is an imported broader issue.)
“As I said I have mixed views, the notion that abstinence can reduce teen prenancies and STD rates of infection is a valid one.” The literal view of this is generally accepted (as one option). I consider STD and pregnancy to be to generally separate issues. For example, to say “we cannot vacinate against an STD” because it world incourage sex is totally moronic (or to be exact: non sequitur). (Not that you did, but some people do!) If there are other issues like unwanted pregnancy, then that is valid but separate.
“Well the normal propaganda was reeled” Careful, you are attacking the nature of the argument, not the argument itself.
“Of course as I read the material more it became obvious that most of it was bunkum” If he says it was statistically insignifiant, you need a solid statistically based argument to disagree. The article does not provide enough information to do statistical work. You are just over eager to overturn opposing points of view.
“a begrudging admission that yes indeed no sex equals no babies and no infection transmission.” That is accepted and is not the issue under debate. The issue is _how_ we get low unwanted pregancies and low STD rates.
“So some criticism fell his way that he was amplifying the negative results over the positive.” Who exactly made criticism? (otherwise its weasel word.)
“What is interesting is that he considers the statistical difference to be minute, but this is over tens of thousands of surveyed participants so the gap is larger” You are criticising his statistical methods, but there is not enough information in the artical to do that.
“What isn’t shown is the frequency of those lapses.” Since the STD rates for all groups are not significantly different, how does this change his findings?
“But, most if not all of these chastity movements are quite clear that abstinence means abstaining from all sexual acts.” And this disapoves the findings how?
And finally, since we are talking about “evidence based” policies, you need to show valid evidence supporting your view – not just bash the opposition view point. Is there good evidence for “Teen Pledges Significantly Cuts STD Rates”?
I got to do some stuff, so I will post later on the uniform issue.
AC1
June 24th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Glad we agree on something… the literal view is infallible, no sexual activity no transmission of sexual infections.
I agree it is moronic to propose that vaccinations against STD’s are wrong as they encourage sexual activity. Vaccinations against STD’s are of a benefit to social health.
Indeed I was attacking the nature of the argument first and foremost, and that was the purpose of my post. The statistical evidence is interesting, but that it is reported with the negatives amplified and the positives muffled smacks of using statistics for the purposes of propaganda, and that is always a fallacy.
7% STD rate of infection in non-abstainers, and 4(ish)% in consistent abstainers. A 3 percent difference is not a minute difference.
My point is if the figures for inconsistent abstainers 6% is compared with the figures for non-abstainer 7% then yes indeed that is a miniscule difference between a group that has not pledged abstinence and a group that has. Which exemplifies my original point, inconsistent abstainers are not abstainers. Its like saying “in between cigarettes I’m a non-smoker”.
That the difference between these two groups is so small, is because the inconsistent pledgers, as opposed to the consistent pledgers, have ‘frequently’ broken their pledge and engaged in high-risk activity.
It may indeed only take one lapse for the unfortunate person to contract an STD but it is more generally the case that such events occur through frequent risk taking.
I resent the ‘weasel words’ allegation as in reading the post it should have been fairly obvious that I was engaged in paraphrase and generalisation for the purpose of a larger argument.
That Chastity concerns absitenence from all sexual activity does not ‘disprove’ the statistics and it was not presented to suggest that they did. On the contrary it was those proffering the statistics who suggested that it could be implied from the stats that those abstinence movements that focused solely on abstaining from Vaginal intercourse therefore presented a not insignificant risk to their adherents as they would then still feel justified to engage in other forms of sexual activity (from which STD’s may still be transmitted). My point was that in general abstinence movements do not focus solely on abstinence from vaginal intercourse, they focus on total sexual abstinence. Ipso Facto then that those totally consistent abstainers who abstain from all sexual activity are not at any significant risk from the transmission of an STD.
Where STD’s have been transmitted among those who are inconsitent abstainers (of varying degrees)it is a result of personal and not institutional behaviour.
And please dont characterise me as simply opposition bashing for it is a charge that could just as easily be put back to you when you read the tone of some of your posts.
You have offered the proposition do Teen pledges significantly cut STD rates.
You have loaded the question.
The statistics showed that amongst even those who regularly failed in their abstinence pledge the rates were lower. Even if it is a fraction of a percent it is still lower. I have not attached the notion of significance here.
I could equally present a loaded proposition by saying
“Where Teen Pledges have been consistently adhered to STD rates have all but vanished”.
June 24th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
I think I should step away from the keyboard because I am in a bit of a mood (for unrelated reasons). It is better leave my emotional baggage at the door. Or can in try (in vain) to be objective… oh well, here ‘gos!
“A 3 percent difference is not a minute difference.” You are again restating the differences is significant when I brought up the point that you don’t have the information to say that. I still think you can’t say 3 percent is significant because the news article does not have enough data to support that proposition.
“I resent the ‘weasel words’ allegation” Ok I will try to avoid that in future. I admit it was more confrontational that usual. In my defense, it is an easy accusation to rebut by naming who you are referring to.
“it was not presented to suggest that they did.” Yes I agree. This is beyond the scope of what you raised possibly. I just want point out how scientific evidence is used. Each explanation has varying degrees of evidence in support.
“And please dont characterise me as simply opposition bashing” ok point taken.
“that could just as easily be put back to you when you read the tone of some of your posts.” I agree. I am affected by conformational bias.
“You have loaded the question.” Actually I think the proposition I suggested is sound. We are discussing statistics and only a statistically significant finding is valid. A statistically insignificant finding is not supported by the evidence because it could be random sample “noise”. Perhaps I should have said “Teen Pledges Cuts STD Rates by a Statistical Significant Amount” to be more precise.
AC1
June 24th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
Regarding school uniforms: we need to ask ourselves why we have uniforms and ask if we should have exceptions. Uniforms are meant to improve attitudes and behavior and therefore improve academic achievement. There is some variation in clothing as students are of difference sizes.
Questions arise when we have exceptions to the same uniform. One commonly accepted difference is boys and girls dress differently due to cultural norms. Therefore cultural norms are an accepted reason to modify the uniform standard.
If we have a religion which is not a cultural norm for a school, should they be allowed? Not without a really good reason. Because if we accept differences on religious grounds, we run into reductio ad absurdum. e.g. I can propose any clothing I want and wear it on religious grounds – and uniform becomes meaningless.
The grey area which I have not addressed is if there is a religious group which is culturally part of a school and they would not attend if they could not dress according to their religion. I am still undecided on that issue.
Basically I am against all non essential differences. The silver ring thing I class as non essential.
AC1
June 24th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Bad weekend?
I can accept your modified proposition as being a valid question. I do not think that teen pledges significantly cut std rates or unwanted pregnancies where teen pledges are based on voluntary abstinence programmes and where of course teenagers will always be subjected to peer pressure.
I think it is fair to say though also that teen pledges do not increase std rates either.
We can continue to argue about how significant or miniscule a 3% differential is and on the scientific use of statistics you correctly pointed out that without the precise figures it is un-scientific of me to challenge the stats.
I think however that will be counterproductive. I merely wished to propose that (as guilty as I am) the way the stats were used in the original media article was to amplify the negatives and to muffle the positives.
Thankyou for clarifying the scientific method, about which you are spot on. My rant was aimed at the misuse of statistics for propaganda purposes, which I think we can both agree as unscientific.
On an aside another blog reporting this same debate (although not as well as us) praises the girls stance and her courage in defending her pledge. It also links to the girls ‘website’ which I investigated and which sadly looks like a propaganda tool.
Part of my original intent in the post (sadly lost amidst my ranting) was that chastity is a fine ‘virtue’ to pledge to, if that pledge is freely made. That this case is being brought on her behalf by her parents who took objection to the schools position, the same parents who both happen to be the UK representatives of the ‘Silver Ring Thing’ leaves me a little uncomfortable.
June 24th, 2007 at 5:16 pm
I must say being against non-essential differences is a little boring. And this is perhaps my motivation in supporting contemporaneous diversity as opposed to cultural norms.
You are right there is a danger in reductio ad absurdum and the headmaster in the case proposed this, he said if differing religious grounds were reasonable grounds for clothing diversity then differing politics (stop the war, CND), differing musical tastes and differing sporting preferences (Celtic vs Rangers) could be cited as reasonable grounds.
The problem here is that this diversity if you like pre-exists the uniform policy so you are asking pupils to conform to an outward rigid norm which psychologically can be damaging with regards the development of what Erik Erikson called identity development.
This is particularly shown in his research on the adolescence stage (11-18 years)Identity vs Role Confusion.
As you said where religion is not the cultural norm for the school, should some outward symbol that contradicts the cultural norm be prohibited. You seem to proposing that yes such counter cultural symbols should be prohibited.
Yet the counter-cultural urge that is outwardly symbolised pre-exists in the consciousness of the pupil.
Should we not then ban a pupil from stating in playground conversation that they are adherents of ‘x’ religion where the school is a secular state one?
Or proceed to the next step and exclude religious pupils from non-religious schools or vice versa?
Despite my general opposition to your position I will agree with you to a certain extent. If an outward symbol of counter-culturalism leads to uncontrollable peer group conflict then it should be prohibited. I’m struggling to think of examples, so I’ll go for a completely outrageous one. Lets say a pupil has a transgender identity crisis and being unable to undergo gender reassignment surgery (being underage) decides then to engage in cross-dressing and insists upon their ‘right’ to do so in school, if then that pupil is subjected to obvious and sustained bullying (although all bullying is unacceptable) then it is prudent to propose that the pupil does not cross-dress in school time. (Whilst simultaneously attempting to punish, educate and rehabilitate the sources of the bullying).
June 24th, 2007 at 5:23 pm
In the interests of balanced commentary, and scientific plausability
and of course to be a relentless tease I offer this article from the Journal of Education Research on the effectiveness of School Uniforms on attendance, behaviour problems, substance abuse and academic achievement.
http://www.geocities.com/school_uniforms/abstract98.html
Or I could just quote you the one sentence abstract:
“In one sentence, this study showed that uniforms did NOT lead to an improvement in attendance, behavior, drug use, or academic achievement.”
June 24th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
Yeah interesting stuff.
“Should we not then ban a pupil from stating in playground conversation that they are adherents of ‘x’ religion where the school is a secular state one?” Ideally pupils can have any view points they want as long as they are ready to back them up. For example, if a student used Hitler in an essay about a civil rights leader, they better be ready to back it up with a good argument. (e.g. movie American History X).
“In one sentence, this study showed that uniforms did NOT lead to an improvement in attendance, behavior, drug use, or academic achievement.” I did see this mentioned when I was researching and they might well be right. Perhaps the broader question becomes what dress codes are acceptable in all public spaces? Many of the same issues occur.
e.g. Holland split over burqa ban http://observer.guardian.co.uk/world/story/0,,1951699,00.html
Perhaps we need a compulsory national uniform? just kidding
AC1
June 24th, 2007 at 8:31 pm
I have avoided discussing if the UK is secular or religious. This would be grounds to decide on a ban of religious symbols. We have discussed the extent of secularism and we don’t seem to agree.
AC1
June 24th, 2007 at 8:50 pm
Sure.
I don’t think I could agree that a pupil should have to be able to justify their belief in religion ‘x’ in the playground. By the time they are an adult maybe, but then how are they to justify it? They are not all theologians or philosophers or even skilled artisans of language investigations. The professionals like you and I would/could tear them apart.
Some may say it is a consolation to them (which would irk you) others may say that they have deduced the reasonability of their beliefs from the world around them and the inference of something higher (which would irk both of us for similar reasons).
The exploration of their personal belief systems (religious, ethical, philosophical, musical, artistic) are all part and parcel of their growing sense of identity so I don’t think we should demand too much ‘reason’ or ‘clarity’ from them.
I agree obviously that if it was an academic context then indeed a statement ought to be followed by a fact or a demonstration of its relavence.
But that is why I did load the question by placing the conversation in the playground.
You are spot on really that the real question is about what constitutes apropriate dress in the public space. I dont know what you think, but my view is that clothes are primarily functional they keep you dry, warm, etc. any other function that clothes serve are secondary. Ergo dress codes are fabricated cultural impositions.
I can’t remember the entirety of our discussion on secularism in that context. And I think we probably share more agreement than at first realised.
I think the UK is now a secular country in many respects. I want religion to be completely disestablished. I think religion has two places though that it deserves to compete for in the national psyche.
i) the nation has a christian heritage, and that heritage provides a contextual understanding of our nations development. A history of Britain without the religious bits would be pretty empty. And the religious bits are a multifaceted concoction of positive and negative actions and events and motives.
ii) there are those (possibly even a majority if one is to believe the loaded dice of statistics) who are religious to some degree or another. This must be protected from those who would use it for prejudical purposes (included here are religious fundamentalists and militant atheists). I have a vision (I sound like the new PM) of a multi-belief country, that protects the rights of all its constituent parts.
Anyway that will do for now. I’m sure there are particulars that we disagree upon as well such as Faith schools, religious education and its relationship to scientific education, blasphemy laws, incitement to hatred laws, dress-codes, public displays of official religion (prayers/memorial services etc.) But these are for another day.
June 25th, 2007 at 5:45 pm
“I don’t think I could agree that a pupil should have to be able to justify their belief in religion ‘x’ in the playground.” Well in the playground environment, it’s their choice to talk about it or not. If they talk about it, they better have some justification. Arbitrary beliefs are slightly pointless and I don’t see why a playground is excluded. Obviously if they don’t want to talk about it (and I guess most don’t) then it’s not an issue.
“By the time they are an adult maybe, but then how are they to justify [religion]?” Your question raises an important, but separate, point: why do children believe in God? (hint: most children have the same religion as their parents.) A discussion for later perhaps.
“I agree obviously that if it was an academic context then indeed a statement ought to be followed by a fact or a demonstration of its relavence.” You are right I was talking broadly about the school environment not specifically about playgrounds. Critical thinking stills, I think, are under developed at school.
“Ergo dress codes are fabricated cultural impositions.” I often think that when I have a pile of ironing to do!
AC1
June 26th, 2007 at 7:08 pm
Please justify why you think arbitrary beliefs are pointless?
I believe Neighbours is a good soap-opera yet arbitrarily dismiss the rest as utter tosh. The justification of lack of justification for my belief in this case (and in many others) is entirely irrelevent to other peoples justification criteria.
If however on the other hand I made a statement saying “all soap-operas should be banned except for Neighbours” then yes indeed I should offer some sort of justification for this.
By extension:
when our character says in the playground “I am a christian and believe in all that entails” there is absolutely no necessity for that person to justify their belief any more than if they had said “I believe I am a zombie”.
If however the said character states “I am a christian and believe in all that entails and you ought to believe in the same things as me” then the sensible response should be “why?”
But even then the character is not obliged to answer why they should believe. If they choose to answer why they should believe then they are beginning to provide a justification to their belief, and that is essential in that context, the context of stating a belief that others ought to believe.
Likewise our character says “I believe I can fly” the response should be scepticism matched with raised eyebrows. If however the character says “I believe we can fly, why dont you jump off the cliff with me and find out” then one should seek some clarification and justification for what seems to be an erroneous belief.
A child having the same or similar religious belief as their parents is no more unusual than a child having the same eye colour or characteristics as one/both of their parents. It is a nature/nurture debate. And of course a child will adhere to the value of their parents as a child still maintains a certain psycho-social dependence upon them. Come adolescence the child will begin to develop their own unique sense of identity beyond the family group and be influenced by their peers and contemporaries, whence beliefs may change. Come adulthood a succesfully rounded individual may then further develop their sense of identity independent of other persons.
Yes critical thinking skills should be further promoted at school. I recommend philosophy for the under 10-s. After all they are at their most inquisitive and are fertile for learning. “Why” and “how” are the watchwords of the young child.
June 26th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
“Please justify why you think arbitrary beliefs are pointless?” Good question. Because arbitrary beliefs don’t reflect reality. They can be dangerous for the believer (“I can fly!” … *splat*) or any bystanders (some moron lands on my head and squashes me). Also, they are not likely to benefit the believer (except if they are beneficial by slim chance). I am using a fairly non-aggressively definition of arbitrary here. Arbitrary belief of a person has no arguments to support it. Of course, arguments my exist but the believer may not have thought of them. The main source of arbitrary beliefs (in my definition) is probably insanity. Almost everyone can back up what they believe with arguments (and only if they want to).
I am not necessarily saying we should find and eliminate arbitrary belief. (At least I have not suggested it yet!) Of course, if someone imposes their beliefs, we have a motivation to find their basis – but this is a separate issue in my opinion.
An interesting area of my argument is if I once knew the justification of a belief but I have forgotten the justification. Is it now arbitrary?
“It is a nature/nurture debate.” Are you suggesting religious belief (or even a belief in a specific religion) is genetically inherited?
“Come adulthood a succesfully rounded individual may then further develop their sense of identity independent of other persons.” I think humans are somewhat restricted in beliefs due to psychological biases. Most adults share the same religious (and other) beliefs as their parents too. I think a hermit could develop an independent sense of identity.
June 27th, 2007 at 7:36 pm
nature/nurture I was thinking along the lines of what you have defined as psychological restrictions.
I’m thinking of Jung who described Eastern religion as being specifically orientated to developing in eastern extrovert culture and western religion being suited to western introverted culture. Although he believed that the west had jumped from paganism to monotheism too quickly!
As you said the child will tend to believe the same as their parents. Come adulthood they will probably have similar religious beliefs if not identical, but hopefully they will have justified that belief for themselves.
Even if the grounds of their justification are for them entirely arbitrary.
I know you are not suggesting (yet) that we root out arbitrary belief, but you seem to be sailing close to the wind.
If arbitrary beliefs do not reflect reality then neither necessarily do our aesthetic pursuits. Where do we draw the line?
Our dreams incorporate ‘real’ images from our experiences and sometimes construct them in a ‘meaningful’ way. But quite often our dreams do not reflect ‘true’ or ‘pure’ reality.
I am inclined to fall towards Descartes here and ask why then am I to believe my sense-datum? How can I trust the reality of what I see, hear, taste, touch and so on?
Descartes response (eventually) was to say well I’m sure God wouldnt lie to us… but what would your answer be… if our observations are influenced by our observation, if we are permanently subjected to the criteria of confirmation bias… what then of reality?
I’m not about to deny reality, but I am not willing to deny the value of arbitrary belief.
Which brings me back to your words… arbitrary belief is “not likely to benefit the believer”…
sounds a bit arbitrary to me.
June 27th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
Isn’t allowing carte blanche freedom of speech a little arbitrary?
Or, scientific speculation about what might be possible, but which we cannot know at this time because of our lack of knowledge?
Or, speculating on past events that may well have happened, and which the balance of evidence suggests probably did happen, but about which we have no direct empirical witnessed evidence with which to verify?
* Note here I am not denying the feasibility of Darwins theory (you should know me better) but as you yourself have previously stated it is nonetheless a theory (albeit the most reasonable and most evidentially probable one)… but these little caveats that undermine the absolute certainty or exactitude, that compel us to call it Darwins ‘theory’ as opposed to Darwins ‘law’… isn’t that a little arbitrary.
(I am slightly misusing your definition of what constitutes arbitrary belief, but I felt it needed to be done).
June 27th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Interesting question that you asked:
“if I once knew the justification of a belief but I have forgotten the justification. Is it now arbitrary?”
I am guessing that by your definition, yes it is… but by my interpretation are we not putting too much weight upon the validity of justification?
June 28th, 2007 at 11:01 am
Just to reverse the question, can you outline why arbitrary beliefs (i.e. belief without justification) are useful?
(btw, I am not necessarily disagreeing with your points. After all from a existential perspective, we have views on belief!)
AC1
June 28th, 2007 at 11:06 am
“that compel us to call it Darwins ‘theory’ as opposed to Darwins ‘law’… isn’t that a little arbitrary.” Well that is science for you! You know the “law” of gravity? Perhaps this is the most famous of scientific laws. Interestingly, it was superceded by General Relativity! Why do people still refer to the “law of gravity”?
(Obviously I have a view on this but not the time to express it.)
AC1
June 28th, 2007 at 5:03 pm
As for the arbitrariness of “carte blanche freedom of speech”, “scientific speculation” and “speculating on past events”, I think I have explanations for my beliefs. Having beliefs possibly based on faulty logical or wishful thinking is a separate issue. But this is really beside the point of “is arbitrary belief pointless” (in my humble opinion).
AC1
June 28th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
You have hit the crux on the head, but I shall examine in it by reversing your question.
Why should beliefs, arbitrary or otherwise be useful?
Or, if useful, does that make a belief correct?
I don’t wish to answer these questions as a part of a comment and may defer this to a later dialogue.
But belief can be many things, for belief is not truth, belief is not knowledge and belief is not wisdom.
Belief may be related to the above, but it is not the same as the above.
Belief is a psychological state of mind, and a personal conviction of the truth of something.
You described an arbitrary belief as not being useful (except in rare circumstances) to the believer. I would challenge this by stating that an unjustified true belief may be equated with a lucky guess, it may not be exactly equivalent though to being in a state of knowledge.
It’s usefulness isn’t all that rare.
I believe it is dangerous to flick a light switch if it is wet. I have been informed by popular opinion, common sense, and recieved scientific knowledge that such a course of action is dangerous. But in none of those circumstances do I truly ‘know’ that it is the case. I am relying and trusting the authority of others in this matter.
Similarly I can state “I am in pain” to denote to you that I am suffering from pain. You can (erroneously) state “I know you are in pain” or “I feel your pain” but neither of these are truth statements or statements of knowledge, they are statements of belief based upon a variety of factors.
a) that you can see by certain facial signs or bodily movements that I am not behaving in a fashion that seems comfortable or normal.
b) that such movements or even sounds would seem to correlate to a common pattern of pain experience.
c) that having witnessed this behaviour in others before, or having experienced it yourself, you can deduce that I am indeed in pain.
Of course I could be lying, but you would have to ask why I would be lying, or perhaps judge for yourself whether my movements and sounds truly correspond with that you have formerly known with pain.
Either way, you cannot ‘know’ I am in pain, you can only believe it, and that belief, although true, is not knowledge.
I think this example highlights perhaps the differences in interpretation that we place upon belief, knowledge and truth.
My opinion is that belief is a state of psychological conviction. It can be right, or wrong, it can be luckily true, or justifiably true, it can be intuited, it can be seemingly beyond reason. It can be any of these things, but it does not need to be any of these things in order for it to be a belief.
June 28th, 2007 at 5:44 pm
But faulty logic and wishful thinking to use two of your examples have nothing to do with the state of belief itself. It is to do with the state of knowing or demonstrating that belief and thats entirely different.
If we return to the original ideas, a person who holds an arbitrary belief does not have to justify that belief, unless that belief is expressed as a knowledgeable or evidentially true belief, in which case then the claims to knowledge or truth should be open to justification and verifiability.
In fact I think worrying whether arbitrary belief is pointless, is an arbitrarily pointless speculation.
June 28th, 2007 at 7:40 pm
By synchronicity or providence I came across this in my Wittgenstein research today.
Taken from a collection of his notes called: Culture and Value…
he says this:
“The historical accounts in the Gospels might, historically speaking, be demonstrably false and yet belief would lose nothing by this: not, however, because it concerns ‘universal truths of reason’! Rather, because historical proof (the historical-proof game) is irrelevant to belief. This message (the Gospels) is seized on by men believingly (i.e. lovingly).
Faith is faith in what is needed by my heart, my soul, not my speculative intelligence.
I believe that one of the things Christianity says is that sound doctrines are all useless. That you have to change your life.”
June 28th, 2007 at 7:59 pm
If I hit my head and start grunting and swearing in pain, don’t bother asking me if it hurt – since you don’t “know” if I really feel pain.
Just playing devil’s advocate!
AC!
June 28th, 2007 at 10:20 pm
I can always ask if it hurts and intuit that you may require sympathy for being in pain. But, even though I may have experienced that pain for myself I cannot know your pain.
June 28th, 2007 at 10:23 pm
Although… trusting my senses and rejecting unresolved Cartesian skepticism, I can ‘know’ that you are expressing dissatisfaction at feeling pain. I just cannot ‘know’ that pain.
I fully accept the intervention of the Devils Advocate and see no reason why either of us should reject external knowledge altogether
June 28th, 2007 at 10:40 pm
Sod it! Lets go for a bit of unresolved cartesian skepticism it might be fun
Talking of arbitrary scientific beliefs… what about Electrons and DNA? Are they:
a) observable entities, or
b) unobservable instrumental entities (unobservable entity x exists as an instrument to aid in the success of theory y), or
c) unobservable entities that do not exist even as non-truth conditioned instruments?
I am lured to propose to you the famous ‘Brain in a Vat’ argument.
A mad scientist removes a brain from a body and places it in a vat full of life-sustaining fluids.
The brains neurons are connected by wires to a supercomputer that provides electrical impulses to stimulate the brain.
These impulses are identical to those provided by our brain in normal circumstances.
The supercomputer is projecting to us a virtual reality, such as ‘I am walking down the street’.
Our brain is responding to these impulses and is experiencing this virtual reality.
However of course this virtual reality and all the experiences and sensations and objects and facts contained within it have no bearing upon external as-lived brain in the skull reality.
As the impulses and experiences of the brain in the vat are synonymous with those experiences that are had in the skull, these experiences are undifferentiable.
In other words the brain (from its impulse/neuron perspective) cannot tell whether it is in vat or in a skull.
Yet in a skull most of the persons beliefs may be true ‘I am walking down a street, I am eating ice-cream, it is raining’.
The brain in the vat may well think it is experiencing the same reality, but it is not, this is false belief.
Therefore, so the argument goes, we cannot rule out the possibility that our brains are in vats.
In which case we cannot know whether our beliefs are completely false.
Therefore we have no justification for believing in any of the things we say we believe in.
We cannot know what we believe.
June 29th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Which reminds me, I am currently reading “What We Believe but Cannot Prove: Today’s Leading Thinkers on Science in the Age of Certainty”. I will post a review when I am done.
AC1
June 29th, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Sounds like a good read. Looking forward to the review.
June 30th, 2007 at 6:11 pm
By a quite pleasant coincidence I have been re-reading the Restaurant at the end of the universe.
I had almost completely forgotten about the ‘ruler of the universe’ who quite pleasingly is a solopsistic skeptic “nothing exists except my mind”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minor_characters_from_The_Hitchhiker%27s_Guide_to_the_Galaxy#The_Ruler_of_the_Universe
June 30th, 2007 at 10:26 pm
I am the Ruler of the Universe’s cat
AC1
July 1st, 2007 at 10:33 am
“My Lord”
June 23rd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
[...] to the heart of the issue of uniforms and freedom of belief – unlike the Lydia Playfoot case (the Silver Ring Thing) which is entirely optional within Christianity. The high court ruled against Lydia Playfoot back [...]